[Anonymous]

I’ve looked for this before but could never find it; however, it showed up in my LinkedIn newsfeed because NASBA posted it! It’s final passes by how many total attempts. I can’t figure out how to link to the specific story, so here’s the link to the graphic:
https://image-store.slidesharecdn.com/b03ab25a-5d86-4d64-9fd4-62c11a81032d-large.jpeg
And the link to the main NASBA LinkedIn page (currently this is the 2nd story on the page):
https://www.linkedin.com/company/28178

And the graphic as an image:

I think a couple years ago NASBA had said they didn’t have a way to track this data, so maybe they’ve just recently modified their methods to be able to track it? Whatever the case, I’m excited to see it. 🙂

And…if anyone else knows how to link directly to a LinkedIn story, feel free to post the direct link. I don’t link to LinkedIn enough to know. 😐

[Operation_CPA]

Glad you posted this, nice to know I am not the only one not sweeping these things straight through.

[Anonymous]

58.8% require more than four attempts…sounds about right. I've always heard that the average person needs 2 attempts on two or three of the four sections. But – with the changes upcoming in Q2 and beyond, it will be interesting to see how those numbers change. From what it sounds like, BEC and AUD are going to be testing at a much higher level. I will be in the first batch of testers on the new format!

[Anonymous]

Still seems a little high even if we are just talking about those who passed and not factoring in those who have sat for exams and didn't pass. We have to assume that this statistic should be consistent year to year as well and that roughly 40% of the candidates who finish all 4 parts do it in 4 tries.

When we look at the AICPA pass rate reports and average the cumulative pass rates of all 4 exams you get roughly 50%. If you flip a coin 4 times and want to land heads its 1/16 chance. I don't expect the actual pass rate to be less than 10% but 40% just seems really high. I know that we are just talking about those who are passed but I still think 41% is a really high number for a candidates that took all 4 and never failed.

Does this mean more than half of the people who take the CPA exam give up? Seems a little fishy to me and it looks like maybe NASBA and the AICPA want to make it look like passing the exam is not that hard and to justify the 2017 changes.

[ruggercpa2b]

There are a handful of people who start the exam process and give up. Some end up coming back years later and some are just done. I have run into a lot of people through work that will talk about the exam and say they attempted it and then realized they didn't need it for the jobs or to advance in their careers so they hang it up. Most of the ones I talk to are in IT and have taken the CISA instead of the CPA. We have to remember there are more people out there outside of the people that are active on this forum.

I took my first exam back in 2011 but I wasn't serious and after a year of barely studying and taking the exams I threw in the towel. But then I made the switch from private to public and needed to get back into studying so here I am back at it after a nice long break.

AUD - 73, 72 retake 7/2/2016
BEC - 8/20/2016
REG - TBD
FAR - TBD

I am so ready for this nightmare to be over. Been at this way too long.

[Anonymous]

@Chrislo you asked: “Does this mean more than half of the people who take the CPA exam give up?” Not sure what you're referencing there. The percentages add up to 100%…

The 41.2% all-first-time passes is higher than I've seen it estimated around here, but I'd say it's quite believable. Let me try to do some math on it, like a weighted-average thing, assuming 5-6 averages 5.5 etc.:
41.2% pass in 4 tries, making 164.8 weighted
28.2% pass in 5.5 tries, making 155.1 weighted
13.1% pass in 7.5 tries, making 98.25 weighted
6.8% pass in 9.5 tries, making 64.6 weighted
10.7% pass in 15 tries, making 160.5 weighted
Total weight points: 643.25
Total 100 4th exam passes, aka 400 passes
Equals 62% overall passrate

Estimate the higher end of the ranges:
41.2% pass in 4 tries, making 164.8 weighted
28.2% pass in 6 tries, making 169.2 weighted
13.1% pass in 8 tries, making 104.8 weighted
6.8% pass in 10 tries, making 68 weighted
10.7% pass in 17 tries, making 181.9 weighted
Total weight points: 688.7
Total 100 4th exam passes, aka 400 passes
Equals 58% overall passrate

Throw in some people who gave up, some who are in the fail rates without having made it to passing yet, etc., and you can get pretty close to the figures you're expecting.

[Skynet]

Just remember though that it doesn't show the number of retakes on your CPA Certificate so no one will ever know.

[Anonymous]

That's not what I'm saying…Let me elaborate. I have an issue with the underlying message they are trying to say. And obviously that graph adds to 100%. I am not an idiot. This is a graph of candidates that completed the exams and how many tries they took. And Lilla, I know you took some effort to show me those numbers but you cannot simply use these numbers to create an estimated pass rate. This is an efficiency rate not a pass rate graph. You can't use those numbers to create a pass rate because that number has absolutely no data on those who have not completed the exams. You are basically doing what NASBA and the AICPA wants you to think. It's a little bit like how the CPA review courses like to argue “candidates that use our course have a 90% better passing rate than those who don't.” Probably a true statement only under very specific circumstances with disclaimers.

The AICPA is very transparent about the pass rates of the exams. We all know the pass rates for each exam ranges from 45-48% for FAR, REG, AUD and 52-55% for BEC. So mathematically speaking when we look at all candidates who have ever sat for the exams the number of people who sit for 4 exams in a row and pass all 4 is much lower than 41%.

For NASBA to say “hey 41% of CPA's complete the exams without failing” you have to reduce the sample size. They specifically sliced and cut this data to look this specific way. So what are they really trying to do? Try to make people not look at the pass rates?

“People who fail the exams are under prepared or under qualified to take the exams?”

“These people who took the exam don't really count. Let's only look at these candidates because we feel like they actually tried?”

Or are they simply trying to say “if you stick with the exam you will eventually pass?”

Either way I think the message they are trying to say is a misleading. Yea you show the 28,000 exam attempts of those who passed but what about the other 200,000+? That's what I'm talking about when I say do many candidates quit?

[Anonymous]

I'd be interested to know what percentage actually stop once they're started. I've run across a few who passed one or more sections and then just quit. Passing a section is definitely an accomplishment, although effectively you have a ZERO on the CPA exam as a whole until you pass the fourth one. It's easy to burn out though, and I think a lot of people do -they may take and pass a couple sections and then work/life get in the way and the thought of trying to finish the process is not one they want to face, particularly if they already have a great job. I burned out a month before taking FAR, and studied very little in the weeks before taking it. But somehow, after taking FAR, I suddenly have a lot of momentum again. All a very strange process.

Not surprising that some people take 20 sections…and I want to see how that number changes with the new version. If they don't lower the pass threshold on the new version, some people may be taking 25-30 sections unless the new version ends up being easier with fewer MCQ and more SIMs.

The funny thing here is that most of the review course vendors say “88 percent pass rate.” Now, in light of the fact that for many years, all except BEC have had average pass rates in the 40-50% range, the '88' is not accurate. It probably means that 88 percent of candidates, whether or not they take ANY review course (some people don't…) eventually do pass, even if they take a total of 20 exams. So, that would indicate that the dropout rate is 12%, which seems lowish but I don't think the actual figure has ever been released.

[Anonymous]

Also take a look at this document. Shows data for number of attempts, average score, pass rates for first time or retakes.

https://media.nasba.org/files/2015/01/2014_Overall.pdf

It is for the 2013-2014 data but it is still very relevant.

2014 pass rates

2016 pass rates

They are basically identical.

136,288 first time attempts resulted in an average score of 72.6 and average pass rate of 55%. Keep in mind I'm pretty sure if you failed one exam and tried another section for the first time and passed it counts towards that number.

So honestly I am very curious if what they are saying is true that of the 28,000 that finish that 41% of them didn't fail just how many people don't go through the entire exam process. Just seems odd to me.

[Anonymous]

@crazyleon

That's what I think as well. It makes sense for there be less people with 10+ attempts. I think it really takes a mentally tough person to fail 6 times and say “I'm not giving up.” Regardless of whether or not you studied your ass off every time or not. Most of those people who failed a few times probably feel like giving up. They probably take a long time before they officially declare someone a “dropout.”

[Track55]

I was whizzed off the first time I saw this as there's no way I am in the bottom 30% of test takers (7 tries). But as others said, if you account for the people that walked away, then I'm probably in the middle 50%.

AUD - 74, 99 !!
REG - 74, 92
BEC - 83
FAR - 73, 86

Studying for Ethics exam

California candidate
Business and Industry

[So FAR So Good]

The problem is, there is no definitive way to calculate the statistic that we're all wanting them to provide. They can't declare that a candidate gave up before finishing, because that candidate can always come back. You also can't do it over the entire pool of exam candidates as many are still in progress. I think this is a very fair statistic and shows exactly the point they're trying to convey.

F - 91 (6/5/2016)
A - 7/30/2016
R - 10/8/2016
B - 12/10/2016

[sulaiman]

11 times or more! Are these people kidding me! I have been taken it for four times now and I am already sick of it! I cannot wait to be done and have my life back but 11 times!! Like why you wanna do this to yourself!

[Son]

Seems very believable to me. People on this forum tend to have a slightly biased opinion since so many come here for support when they have hard time passing. That creates an illusion that the CPA exam is more difficult than it is.

In reality, most CPAs I've talked to have passed on the first try or failed a section once or twice. So, I find it very possible that two thirds pass by failing only once or twice if at all.

AUD - passed
REG - passed
BEC - passed
FAR - passed

[Missy]

I'd be more than curious to know if those numbers are consistent year to year or if they vary greatly, specificially if the fear of the 2017 exam changes changed any of the percentages 🙂

Licensed Massachusetts Non Reporting CPA since 2012
Finance/Admin/HR Manager

[Author]

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