If you perform well on the first MCQ, you will get a harder second set. This is known as multi-stage testing, and is acknowledged by the AICPA.
See the following excerpt from the AICPA Publication “How the Uniform CPA Examination is Graded”:
“When are easier or more difficult
questions given?
Candidates take two multiple-choice testlets.
The first testlet is always a medium testlet. If a
candidate performs well on the first testlet, he/
she will get a more difficult second testlet while
those who do not perform well on the first testlet
will receive a second medium difficulty testlet. This
testing process is called multi-stage testing (MST).
Please note that the task-based simulations are
not chosen based on candidate performance on
the multiple-choice testlets. They are pre-assigned.”
On my exams, I felt that the 2nd testlet was noticeably more difficult on REG, BEC, and FAR. I honestly could not tell any difference on AUD. It is possible to pass or fail with a Medium-Medium MC. Similarly, it is possible to pass or fail with a medium-difficult MC. Unfortunately no way to know for sure until score release.