2% in your employer's retirement plan? What?
Maybe you just have the world's worst 401(k) and that is skewing your judgment. Normal 401(k)'s allow you to invest in the exact same investment that you are considering in another vehicle, just at a significant tax savings.
Your math is simply incorrect on the tax situation. The benefit of tax deferment is that it allows you to purchase more of the investment with the same amount of pre-tax earnings. The compounding of gains on the marginal amount of investment that you were able to purchase upfront (because it is pre-tax) is where you come out ahead.
With $100 pretax you can purchase 10 shares of $10 stock. With $100 after tax, let's say you can purchase 7.5 shares. You don't touch the account after this. In 40 years let's say this stock is now worth $100. Here are the calculations, keeping in mind earnings of $100 was required in both scenarios:
401(k):
10 shares @ $10 = $100 principal in Year 0
10 shares @ $100 = $1000 principal in Year 40
$1000 * .25 (assumed tax rate) = $250 in tax
After-tax earnings = $750
Taxable vehicle:
7.5 shares @ $10 = $75 principal in Year 0 ($25 tax already assessed)
7.5 shares @ $100 = $750 principal in Year 40
$675 gains * .25 = $168.75 + $25 (year 0) = $193.75 in tax (YAY YOU SAVED MONEY… not)
After-tax earnings = $581.25
Please feel free to question the investments available in your particular retirement plan, but please do not make broad generalizations that 401(k)'s and tax deferment in general is a bad deal. You are simply incorrect, as shown above.
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