[leglock]

For those good with Math/Statistics, do you know what the probability of passing all 4 parts on the first try is, assuming pass rate for each individual section is 50%?

I have no clue how to calculate this, but I’m sure someone here does.

[thechapman]

If you did it that simply would it not just be 0.5^4? That is a 6.25% chance, but I'm sure there's a much better way to do it.

Edit – if you use that method and use the 2013 average pass rate for each section, it comes out to a 5.99% chance.

Passed - 2014

[maxwillguy]

Why wouldn't you just go with the published numbers? 10-14% of candidates pass all sections on the first try…

FAR - Passed (2/14)
REG - Passed (5/14)
Audit - Passed (8/14)
BEC - 8/31

[Anonymous]

Probability of (A+B) = Probability of A * Probability of B

Example: the probability of passing 4 parts of the CPA exam 1st time = Pr(AUD) * Pr(BEC)

[Anonymous]

I haven't found a published number, maxwillguy – I searched for one last year when I was starting these exams.

The problem with using the pass rate per section to get a first-time pass-rate for all 4 is that it's pass rate for all attempts, not just first attempts. Also, I would expect that the likelihood of failing a 2nd exam is greater if you failed your 1st than if you passed your 1st, etc. The only way to get an accurate figure would be to get the stats from the AICPA or NASBA, but last I looked, they said they didn't have such a stat and all I've seen is people's estimates.

From what I have seen and heard, if I had to estimate, I'd say around 25%.

[silverdice7]

Max, can you post where to find the published numbers?

AUD 94
BEC 91
REG 88
FAR 91

Done!

[jeff]

It's around 30%-ish…at least it was a few years ago…not much has changed.

[tomq04]

My professor said that for the history of time they have always aimed to have 30% of students pass all 4 sections without failing. He isn't up on the current numbers, but I recall reading 20% last year, so we are at least close, or even right there if Jeff is to be believed (not sure I trust him as a general rule of thumb).

REG- (1) 76
FAR- (2) 64, (5)74, (7)83 (Over achiever!)
AUD- (3) 70, (4) 75
BEC- (6) 75

[Uhartsoccer21]

The chance to pass each test on the first try prbly increases with each pass so can't treat each test as if they are independent from one another.

A - 89 10/23/2014
R - 90 2/27/2014
F - 75 5/25/2014
B - 83 8/28/2014

[JamesBJames]

I've seen 20% thrown around a lot, myself. I'm curious what the actual number is, though.

FAR: May 1st, 2014 - 91
AUD: May 29th, 2014 - 97!
BEC: July 16th, 2014 - 91
REG: August 29th, 2014 - 88

Licensed December 2015

Feel free to add me on LinkedIn by clicking my username!

[Skynet]

Pi R Squared multiplied by (My Chance in Hell with Scarlett Johannson) divided by 1 to the 5th power.

[GoVPI]

Here's some interesting info. Not exactly what you're looking for but still good

https://nasba.org/files/2014/02/2013-Overall.pdf

BEC 8/14/14 - Passed
Graduated from college 12/13/14
AUD 8/31/15 - 74. Retake - Passed
REG
FAR

[M.O.D.]

Probability assumes a random event. The CPA test content being released ahead of time, does not make the CPA test a random event.

Some well-prepared candidates have a 100% chance of passing, and some have a 0% chance.

BA Mathematics, UC Berkeley
Certificates in CPA and EA preparation, College of San Mateo
CMA I 420, II 470
FAR 91, AUD Feb 2015 (Gleim self-study)

[leglock]

I asked this question because some of those who passed the exam when you had to take all 4 sections at once said we have it so much easier now and one stated to me that the pass rate in his day was about 20% but now it is 50%. I've never seen a current published number as to the percentage of those who pass on first try..

[Anonymous]

The pass rates are skewed; they refer to how many people sat for that exam in that window and how many out of that number passed. It does not take into account how many of those who passed had failed previously 2, 3, 4 times. That's why I do not get too caught up in with pass rates. BEC, statistically, should be the “easiest” test, but as myself and others will tell you, it certainly is not easy. A manager at my firm took it 6 times. Perhaps the reason the pass rate is so high is that by now, so many of the people taking it are on their 3, 4, 5 attempt. Just something to throw into the mix. I'm not worried about what the statistics say, because statistics have nothing to do with my performance on the exam.

[Author]

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